Abstract
Along with the rapid economic development of China, the large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has become constraint
on future sustainable development. The Chinese government has established a series of policies to come with the high CO2-
emission resulting from economic development with the target to reduce its carbon intensity (CO2-emissions per unit of gross
domestic product (GDP)) by 40-45%, and to decrease the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) by 20% by the
year 2020, compared with 2005 levels. Industry and energy structure adjustment are the most important factors that impact on a
low carbon economy, and therefore, it is necessary to pursue a comprehensive evaluation of carbon and energy intensity changes
with a focus on their influences.
This study aims to offer results from a comprehensive simulation modelling of China’s economic development, CO2-emission,
and energy flows. Through a dynamic simulation analysis based on LINGO programming, our study suggests that the carbon
intensity and energy intensity in China can be reduced with 43% and 46%, respectively, while maintaining an 8% GDP annual
growth rate, a proper adjustment on industry structure in term of primary, secondary and tertiary shares according to a ratio to
6:34:60, and an increase in non-fossil energy’s share to 15% in 2020. Dynamic simulation appears to be an effective approach for
assessing environmental impacts and sustainable development.